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Jonathan Schell in The Seventh Decade: the New Shape of Nuclear Danger, pointed out that every country that acquired nuclear weapons did so in response to some external threat.
The United States developed nuclear weapons for fear that Nazi Germany was trying to do the same thing.
The Soviet Union developed nuclear weapons to deter a nuclear attack by the United States. Britain and France sought to deter a nuclear attack by the Soviet Union as well as to not be completely dependent on the United States for their defense. China sought to deter the Soviet Union and the United States.
India sought to deter China as well as to assert great power status. Pakistan sought to deter India. North Korea and Israel are countries under siege with a need for deterrents.
It is understandable that the leaders of Iran, surrouned by a nuclear Israel, Russia, China, India, Pakistan and U.S. fleet, would also seek a nuclear deterrent.
U.S. Secretary of Defense Robert Gates said that a nuclear Iran would be a threat to the United States. That is not so. Russia is the only nation with a sufficient nuclear stockpile to threaten the existence of the United States. But if Iran had only one nuclear weapon, and a missile capable of delivering it to the United States or Israel, that would be sufficient to deter an attack by either of those countries. The United States would not be attacking Libya if the Libyan government had nuclear weapons.
I admit I could be wrong about Iran. I thought Saddam Hussein was working on weapons of mass destruction for the same reasons I now think so about Iran – because that’s what I would have done. I was surprised when Iraq’s nuclear weapons program turned out to be nonexistent. I may be surprised about Iran, too, but I don’t think so.
The development of nuclear weapons by Iran’s would be a very bad thing. It would likely spur acquisition of nuclear weapons by Arab nations whose rulers, as the Wikileaks documents revealed, are deeply concerned about the possibility of a nuclear Iran. The more nations whose leaders have their finger on nuclear buttons, the more likely it is that someday that one of those buttons will be pushed.
But I don’t know what can be done to prevent it. Possibly Iran would drop its nuclear weapons program if peace could be achieved with the United States, Israel and Iran’s Arab neighbors. I don’t see a path as to how this can be accomplished. I don’t think sanctions and threats will achieve this purpose.
Obama vows new bid to thwart Iran nuclear effort
President Barack Obama says sanctions on Iran are having "enormous bite," but he still wants to work with Russia and China to find more ways of putting pressure on Tehran to halt its nuclear program.
"We will be consulting with them carefully over the next several weeks to look at what other options we have available to us," Obama said at a press conference after the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit where he met with the leaders of the two nations.
Obama said his strong preference was to resolve the Iran issue diplomatically, but he added: "We are not taking any options off the table. Iran with nuclear weapons would pose a threat not only to the region but also to the United States."
